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2 Feb 2022

USD/CAD struggles near weekly low, around mid-1.2600s amid bullish oil prices/weaker USD

  • A combination of factors dragged USD/CAD lower for the third successive day on Wednesday.
  • Bullish oil prices underpinned the loonie and exerted pressure amid sustained USD selling bias.
  • The disappointing release of the US ADP report did little to provide any respite to the USD bulls.

The USD/CAD pair witnessed fresh selling during the early North American session and dropped to a fresh weekly low, around mid-1.2600s in reaction to the dismal US ADP report.

Following an early uptick to the 1.2700 mark, the USD/CAD pair turned lower for the third successive day on Wednesday and was pressured by a combination of factors. Crude oil prices jumped to a fresh seven-year high, which continued underpinning the commodity-linked loonie. This, along with the heavily offered tone surrounding the US dollar, exerted downward pressure on the major.

Oil prices broke out of a one-week-old consolidative trading range and shot to a fresh seven-year high after the OPEC+ announced to increase March oil production by 400K barrels per day. This, along with the post-pandemic recovery in fuel demand, should keep a tight supply condition. Apart from this, the conflict between Russia and the West over Ukraine acted as a tailwind for the black gold.

On the other hand, the greenback was weighed down by diminishing odds for a 50 bps Fed rate hike in March and lost additional ground following the release of disappointing US macro data, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported this Wednesday that the US private-sector employment declined by 301K in January as against market expectations for an addition of 207K jobs and the 807K previous.

This, along with weaker US Treasury bond yields and a generally positive tone around the equity markets, further undermined the greenback's relative safe-haven status. The fundamental backdrop supports prospects for a further near-term depreciating move for the USD/CAD pair, though the lack of any follow-through selling warrants some caution for aggressive bearish traders.

Technical levels to watch

 

Feb 2, 2022

EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Still scope for further rebound

EUR/JPY trades in the upper end of the weekly range further north of the key 129.00 hurdle midweek. In light of the recent price action, further recov
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Feb 2, 2022

US Dollar Index Price Analysis: Next on the downside aligns 95.41

DXY adds to the weekly leg lower and clinches fresh lows in the 95.80 region on Wednesday. The downside extends for the third session in a row and aft
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