China: Inflation now seen rising at a slower pace in 2020 – UOB

UOB Group’s Economist Ho Woei Chen, CFA, reviewed the latest inflation figures in the Chinese economy.

Key Quotes

“China’s inflation continued to moderate in September on the back of easing food prices. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.7% y/y… Food price inflation eased to 7.9% y/y from 11.2% y/y in August while core inflation (excluding food and energy) was unchanged for the third consecutive month at 0.5% y/y. The higher base of comparison is expected to drive headline inflation down further in 4Q with full-year averaging around 3.0% compared to 3.3% y/y in the first nine months.”

“Producer Price Index (PPI) fell at a marginally larger pace of -2.1% y/y... However, the month-on-month gains continued into the fourth straight month though the pace moderated to 0.1% in September from 0.3% in August. Headline PPI deflation is likely to continue for the rest of the year but may narrow with firming global demand and commodity prices.”