Poland: MPC likely to keep its policy rate on hold – TD Securities

Analysts at TD Securities suggest that there is little doubt that the MPC will keep its policy rate on hold today at 1.5% in Poland, where it has been since March 2015.

Key Quotes

“Aside from the more hawkish members, they will probably be fairly relaxed about the surprise move up in CPI inflation to 2.9% y/y in July and 2.8% y/y in August, above the 2.5% target.”

“With the Fed and the ECB shifting in a distinctly more dovish direction and with some signs that the Polish economy is slowing, albeit from a very fast pace, the MPC will see little need to change their view that rates will be on hold for this year and, at least, a good part of next year. Apart from mentioning the temporary blip up in inflation, the press conference itself will probably be focused around the European Court of Justice's ruling regarding the $32bn in non-zloty mortgage loans.”