US: Consensus for June NFP is 195k – Deutsche Bank

According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, the highlight outside of trade today will be US payrolls and the consensus for June is 195k (with a high to low range of 154-242k) which compares to the above market 223k in May.

Key Quotes

“The bigger focus, average hourly earnings, are expected to come in at +0.3% mom (DB agrees) which, if it holds, would push the annual rate up one-tenth to +2.8% yoy and match the post-recession high made in September last year.”

“Our US economists are close to the consensus with a 190k projection for payrolls and their expectation is that this should be enough to keep the unemployment rate at 3.8%. Yesterday’s ADP didn’t really do anything to sway that view with the 177k reading pretty much as expected by our economists.”