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31 Mar 2014
New Zealand business confidence: Indicators remain very elevated
FXStreet (Bali) - This month’s ANZ Business Confidence survey came at 67.3 in March vs 70.8 in Feb, a 20/yr high.
Cameron Bagrie, Chief Economist at ANZ, notes: "Our composite indicator, incorporating both business and consumer confidence, is still signalling the potential for annual economic growth of around 6 percent by mid-2014; the economy doesn’t have the capacity to expand that fast but will nonetheless grow strongly."
Official report
"Net 67 percent of firms are optimistic about general prospects. That’s down 4 points on the month prior but that’s not really relevant: we’re still talking elevated levels of confidence (the long-term average has been +10), and when we take seasonality into account the headline figure actually moved up from +65 to +69. Confidence across all the major subsectors is now north of +50 – that’s a sign of a broad-based expansion, as opposed to an upswing dominated by a few pockets of the economy."
"Life on the prairie looks pretty good for businesses despite most indicators nudging marginally lower over the month."
"Firms’ activity expectations regarding their own business eased fractionally, but at +58 remain stratospheric (the long-run average is +27). Since the late 1980s there have only been 11 months in which own activity expectations have been higher, much of which was during the halcyon 1993/94 era."
"Expected profitability (+40) is still strong, despite falling 5 points."
"A net 27 percent of businesses expect to be hiring more staff – still a high reading, though again, off 5 points."
"Investment intentions dipped from +35 to +31. Falls were widespread across most sectors, while residential investment intentions lifted slightly to +53."
"Despite the elevated NZD, export intentions bucked the general trend, lifting from +31 to +32."
"No survey indicator points to an imminent turning point in the economy. Rather it seems to be business as usual, with seasonally adjusted measures largely unchanged on the month prior."
Cameron Bagrie, Chief Economist at ANZ, notes: "Our composite indicator, incorporating both business and consumer confidence, is still signalling the potential for annual economic growth of around 6 percent by mid-2014; the economy doesn’t have the capacity to expand that fast but will nonetheless grow strongly."
Official report
"Net 67 percent of firms are optimistic about general prospects. That’s down 4 points on the month prior but that’s not really relevant: we’re still talking elevated levels of confidence (the long-term average has been +10), and when we take seasonality into account the headline figure actually moved up from +65 to +69. Confidence across all the major subsectors is now north of +50 – that’s a sign of a broad-based expansion, as opposed to an upswing dominated by a few pockets of the economy."
"Life on the prairie looks pretty good for businesses despite most indicators nudging marginally lower over the month."
"Firms’ activity expectations regarding their own business eased fractionally, but at +58 remain stratospheric (the long-run average is +27). Since the late 1980s there have only been 11 months in which own activity expectations have been higher, much of which was during the halcyon 1993/94 era."
"Expected profitability (+40) is still strong, despite falling 5 points."
"A net 27 percent of businesses expect to be hiring more staff – still a high reading, though again, off 5 points."
"Investment intentions dipped from +35 to +31. Falls were widespread across most sectors, while residential investment intentions lifted slightly to +53."
"Despite the elevated NZD, export intentions bucked the general trend, lifting from +31 to +32."
"No survey indicator points to an imminent turning point in the economy. Rather it seems to be business as usual, with seasonally adjusted measures largely unchanged on the month prior."