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1 Jan 1970
USD/CAD potential for further downside below 1.1135/40 - TD Securities
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Shaun Osbourne, Chief FX Strategist at TD Securities, expects the decline in USD/CAD to accelerate if 1.1135/40 is breached.
Key Quotes
"There is an abundance of evidence suggesting to us that the USDCAD track higher is poised to extend—possibly significantly—in the next few weeks which should make the mid 1.13 area reachable pretty quickly. We look for firm support on dips to the 1.1180/1.12 area intraday. Major support is situated at 1.1140/45 now."
"The doubters will point to last night’s week close as evidence that the rally is running out of steam and poised to turn lower. That is an eventuality we clearly cannot discount but we think only an extended slide in funds today—back to or below 1.11—would dent the outlook and even then, we would still likely be inclined to look at anything with a 1.10 handle as a “gift” for USD buyers. Disappointing technical closes don’t mean that much without any downside follow-through to confirm a turn—soft price signals in AUDCAD mid-week did not prevent a move to new cycle highs for the cross today, reaching our technical target of 1.02, for example"
"As it stands, we think the high 1.11/1.12 figure area should be good support on the day. There is a small gap on the short term charts that might have to be filled. Only a sustained push back below this week’s break out point (1.1135/40) would signal more near-term weakness from our perspective."
Key Quotes
"There is an abundance of evidence suggesting to us that the USDCAD track higher is poised to extend—possibly significantly—in the next few weeks which should make the mid 1.13 area reachable pretty quickly. We look for firm support on dips to the 1.1180/1.12 area intraday. Major support is situated at 1.1140/45 now."
"The doubters will point to last night’s week close as evidence that the rally is running out of steam and poised to turn lower. That is an eventuality we clearly cannot discount but we think only an extended slide in funds today—back to or below 1.11—would dent the outlook and even then, we would still likely be inclined to look at anything with a 1.10 handle as a “gift” for USD buyers. Disappointing technical closes don’t mean that much without any downside follow-through to confirm a turn—soft price signals in AUDCAD mid-week did not prevent a move to new cycle highs for the cross today, reaching our technical target of 1.02, for example"
"As it stands, we think the high 1.11/1.12 figure area should be good support on the day. There is a small gap on the short term charts that might have to be filled. Only a sustained push back below this week’s break out point (1.1135/40) would signal more near-term weakness from our perspective."