GBP: Guided by politics and BoE – Westpac

UK’s solid Q3 GDP and PMI data underscore the >90% pricing for BoE to revert to a 50bp Bank Rate, according to Tim Riddell, Research Analyst at Westpac.

Key Quotes

“Forward guidance (“one and done” or starting a gradual hiking path) will be critical especially given that the BoE’s quarterly Inflation Report is released at the same time.”

“The data calendar is relatively light until Sep ind. prod. (9th) and the key Oct. CPI (expected cyclical peak) on 14th Nov. The BoE projections will therefore have increased impact as markets prepare for UK’s 22nd Nov budget. The IFS (Institute of Fiscal Studies) outlined the lack of Hammond’s options as he faces a slower path of debt consolidation. Prolonged austerity may compromise a vulnerable govt. and dampen growth prospects.”

“Brexit talks recommence next week and desperately need a break of deadlock to avoid another weight on GBP.”

“Rebounds should be limited and range defining before GBP weakens again.”