RBA Minutes expected to outline Bank’s more upbeat assessment of growth - BNZ

Research Team at BNZ, suggests that the RBA Board Minutes on Tuesday likely to draw some intermittent attention from rates markets and the AUD in the lead up to the UK EU poll at the end of the week.

Key Quotes

“Guy Debelle, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) is speaking Tuesday to the topic “Liquidity in Domestic Fixed Income Markets” (9.25 AM AEST), an opportunity for participants to quiz the head of markets for the RBA on conditions ahead of and after the poll, though it would not be surprising if he is quite circumspect with any such comments. He is also speaking at an event on Thursday, though the RBA website notes that these are “Remarks”, suggesting a rather low-key event.

Also on the speaking circuit for the RBA this week are Alex Heath, Head of Economic Analysis Department speaking at a CEDA Energy Series event on Tuesday (no title is available as yet), followed Thursday by Lucy Ellis, Head of Financial Stability Department who is participating in a panel at a Centre for International Finance and Regulation Research Showcase Banking event in Sydney.

Tuesday’s RBA Minutes are expected to outline in more detail the Bank’s more upbeat assessment of growth. The market will be very alert to any indication in the Minutes that recent indicators of economic activity provide more comfort on this score, calling into question the likelihood of multiple further RBA easing, or even one more.

Datawise it is a second tier data week with the usual weekly Consumer Confidence Tuesday, and the quarterly official measure of House Price growth also Tuesday. On Wednesday we get Skilled Vacancies and rounding out the week, on Thursday we get the latest population update from the Statistician.”