Back
2 Jun 2015
GBP/USD might test 1.50 on a stronger Dollar – RBS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Paul Robson, Senior Trading Desk FX Strategist at RBS, presents the case for UK GDP and the economy, and further notes GBP/USD risks a move lower towards 1.50.
Key Quotes
“We have regularly expressed our surprise at just how many economists were looking through the weakness in UK Q1 GDP and have long believed the optimistic consensus would be challenged. Last week’s unrevised GDP data makes us even more confident that the economy isn’t as strong as most seem to believe.”
“Bank of England ‘backcasts’ GDP data and expects it to be revised ultimately to 0.5% qoq from 0.3%. Having only just revised down its GDP forecast fairly dramatically, forecasts are already offside.”
“Another theme we have highlighted is the impact that uncertainty around a UK in/out EU Referendum can have on investment. Investment held up fairly well in Q1, so there’s arguably more scope for weakness ahead.”
“This week’s PMI surveys are likely to attract extra scrutiny. Renewed weakness may see GBP/USD retest 1.50 given also a stronger dollar.”
Key Quotes
“We have regularly expressed our surprise at just how many economists were looking through the weakness in UK Q1 GDP and have long believed the optimistic consensus would be challenged. Last week’s unrevised GDP data makes us even more confident that the economy isn’t as strong as most seem to believe.”
“Bank of England ‘backcasts’ GDP data and expects it to be revised ultimately to 0.5% qoq from 0.3%. Having only just revised down its GDP forecast fairly dramatically, forecasts are already offside.”
“Another theme we have highlighted is the impact that uncertainty around a UK in/out EU Referendum can have on investment. Investment held up fairly well in Q1, so there’s arguably more scope for weakness ahead.”
“This week’s PMI surveys are likely to attract extra scrutiny. Renewed weakness may see GBP/USD retest 1.50 given also a stronger dollar.”