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4 May 2015
EUR back on the defensive – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - FX Strategists at TD Securities, note that EUR/USD remains on the defensive ahead of US NFP, and is poised to test 1.1120 in the short-term, breaking below which might slide towards 1.1050/00 levels.
Key Quotes
“This week will get off to a slow start, with the UK on holiday today. That will not be helpful for the EUR which really needs to see a bit more participation in the long side of the trade if it is to build on recent gains.”
“The end of last week’s trading was inauspicious, with EURUSD stalling around 1.13, a major technical point on the longer-term charts (the first retracement resistance of the 1.40/1.04 decline) and the start to this week’s even less so, with EURUSD trading heavy and poised to test short-term trend support at 1.1120; below here and the EUR will slide back to retest the 1.1050/00 area. If the EUR can’t get above here, it has little chance of sustaining the recent bid.”
“It remains to be seen whether investors want to extend positioning ahead of the US NFP data on Friday, where market consensus expectations currently points to a gain of 230k jobs and a 5.4% u/rate (TD 195k and 5.5%). Good data (even our below consensus call is respectable), in other words, which will go someway at least in dispelling concerns that sluggish US growth will prevent the Fed from raising rates later this year.”
“Good data (and upward revisions to the March result) would be an unequivocal plus for the USD.”
Key Quotes
“This week will get off to a slow start, with the UK on holiday today. That will not be helpful for the EUR which really needs to see a bit more participation in the long side of the trade if it is to build on recent gains.”
“The end of last week’s trading was inauspicious, with EURUSD stalling around 1.13, a major technical point on the longer-term charts (the first retracement resistance of the 1.40/1.04 decline) and the start to this week’s even less so, with EURUSD trading heavy and poised to test short-term trend support at 1.1120; below here and the EUR will slide back to retest the 1.1050/00 area. If the EUR can’t get above here, it has little chance of sustaining the recent bid.”
“It remains to be seen whether investors want to extend positioning ahead of the US NFP data on Friday, where market consensus expectations currently points to a gain of 230k jobs and a 5.4% u/rate (TD 195k and 5.5%). Good data (even our below consensus call is respectable), in other words, which will go someway at least in dispelling concerns that sluggish US growth will prevent the Fed from raising rates later this year.”
“Good data (and upward revisions to the March result) would be an unequivocal plus for the USD.”