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24 May 2024

Forecasting the Coming Week: Fedspeak and PCE remain in the spotlight

The improved sentiment in the Greenback came in line with hawkish FOMC Minutes and another set of positive results from US fundamentals, all reinforcing the Fed’s tighter-for-longer narrative ahead of key PCE data and more Fedspeak.

Despite Friday’s pullback, the US Dollar managed to reverse recent weakness and closed the week with decent gains. The FHFA’s House Price Index comes on May 28 seconded by the always-relevant Consumer Confidence gauged by the Conference Board. On May 29, MBA will report on weekly Mortgage Applications ahead of the Fed’s Beige Book. Another revision of the Q1 GDP Growth Rate is due on May 30, followed by the usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the advanced Goods Trade Balance and Pending Home Sales. Closing the month, the focus of attention will shift to inflation figures tracked by the PCE along with Personal Income and Spending.

EUR/USD extended its weekly decline and revisited the 1.0800 region, where it met some decent contention for the time being. Germany’s Business Climate tracked by the IFO institute is expected on May 27. Later in the week, Germany will be at the centre of the debate with the releases of the Consumer Confidence measured by GfK and the preliminary Inflation Rate, all due on May 29. The EMU’s final Consumer Confidence, Economic Sentiment, Industrial Sentiment and the Unemployment Rate are all expected on May 30, while German Retail Sales and the advanced Inflation Rate in the Euroland are due on May 31.

GBP/USD maintained its bullish perspective and advanced for the second week in a row, this time managing to break above the 1.2700 hurdle. In the UK calendar, the Nationwide Housing Prices, Mortgage Lending and Mortgage Approvals are all due on May 31.

USD/JPY kept the recovery well in place and regained the area beyond 157.00, around the 61.8% Fibo retracement of the steep decline following the suspected FX intervention by the MoF in late April. The final prints of the Coincident Index and the Leading Economic Index are due on May 27. Japan’s Consumer Confidence is due on May 29 ahead of weekly Foreign Bond Investment on May 30. At the end of the week come the Unemployment Rate, flash Industrial Production, Retail Sales and Housing Starts.

AUD/USD saw its recent strong rebound meet tough resistance just above 0.6700 the figure, coming under downside pressure afterwards. On May 28 comes the preliminary Retail Sales, while the Westpac Leading Index and the RBA’s Monthly CPI Indicator will be released on May 29. Preliminary Building Permits are due on May 30 seconded by Housing Credit on May 31.

Anticipating Economic Perspectives: Voices on the Horizon

  • BoJ’s Ueda and Fed’s Williams speak on May 27.
  • Fed’s Bowman, Mester, Kashkari, and Cook speak on May 28 along with SNB’s Jordan.
  • Fed’s Williams speaks on May 29.
  • Fed’s Bostic and Williams speak on May 30 along with SNB’s Jordan, BoE’s Bailey and RBA’s Hunter.
  • Fed’s Bostic speaks on June 1.

Central Banks: Upcoming Meetings to Shape Monetary Policies

  • The SARB is expected to keep its rate unchanged at 8.25% on May 30.
May 24, 2024

Mexico Accumulated Current Account/GDP fell from previous 2.47% to -2.67% in 1Q

Mexico Accumulated Current Account/GDP fell from previous 2.47% to -2.67% in 1Q
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May 24, 2024

ECB's Nagel: After a June cut, ECB will probably have to wait until September for next move

European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council Member Dr. Joachim Nagel noted on Friday that a wait-and-see period before a follow-up rate trim would likely follow an early rate cut from the ECB.
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