SEK/JPY: It is time to fade the rally – TDS

Economists at TD Securities think it is time to fade the rally in SEK/JPY, highlighting a few key drivers that should push the cross lower in the next 1-2 months.

USD/JPY is getting close to the “no fly zone”

For one thing, while the Riksbank looks ready to hike and remove QT, that is already priced in. What's more, they probably have the least wiggle in the G10 to dial up the hawkish rhetoric.SEK's growth expectations have been aggressively downgraded recently. Its economy remains one of the most rate-sensitive of the G10 currencies we track, highlighting the high level of floating-rate mortgages. It also lacks a savings buffer to cushion the impact from higher mortgage rates, leaving the economy more vulnerable. 

SEK/JPY HFFV also sits near 12.9 and MRSI implies an even deeper correction. Besides the SEK leg, we also think USD/JPY is getting close to the ‘no fly zone’, increasing the risks of intervention or a BoJ policy tweak this summer.