EUR/HUF to push below 385 on a hawkish National Bank of Hungary meeting – ING

The National Bank of Hungary (NBH) is meeting today. Economists at ING expect the EUR/HUF to tick down toward 385 on a hawkish meeting.

NBH to confirm hawkish tone

“We expect rates to remain unchanged and a hawkish tone. The meeting will also bring an updated central bank forecast, however, we are unlikely to see any game-changer today.”

“The Hungarian Forint has maintained the highest beta against the global story, which, assuming favourable global conditions, creates room for a significant recovery.”

We believe the recent sell-off has cleared the very heavy long positioning that previously blocked further forint appreciation. The renewed rally is also supported by the energy story with the gas price testing new lows. Moreover, with the forint having by far the highest carry within the Central and Eastern Europe region, it will once again attract investors to the HUF market.” 

“Today's hawkish meeting should support the new gains and push the Forint below 385 EUR/HUF.”